Seasonal Buy Signals

Seasonal buy signals

I got the long awaited seasonal buy signals from Vince Stanzione… Yippee.

I say signals as there are a few different variations and options to take. The profits can be fantastic and it is one of the easiest systems to trade.

Please remember that you can still lose money trading these signals though… but long term it’s a winner.

Obviously I am not at liberty to tell you how to trade it, why you should trade it or reveal the other options you have of gaining exposure.

All these things I have learnt from Vince Stanzione directly and from being a member of his private website.

This is by no means a situation of me dangling a carrot in front of your noses though.

I always want to help you to learn how to trade the markets and also learn what it takes to make a living online if possible.

If you want to learn about seasonal trading then you really must buy the stock traders almanac. It is full of seasonal information, trading strategies and statistics.

I have mentioned it to you before. I also met the author or shall I say editor Jeff Hirsch at one of Vince’s seminars. He’s a great guy and full of wisdom on the financial markets.

It was Jeff’s farther that first published the Stock Traders Almanac back in 1967 so as you can see it a stood the test of time.

Since then, the information and growth of the original almanac has continued. Now you obviously have website memberships and seminars and so on that you can attend and learn from.

However, the real bonus of trading nowadays comes from being able to trade and indeed learn to trade from experts in the confines of your own home.

Anyway… back to Vince Stanzione… Vince was advising everyone to remember that this is not the be all of trading systems. The seasonal buy signals is just one of many strategies that are utilised over the year.

If you want learn more about trading from Vince, you can read more here.

Value Betting – Looks Like it’s Hillary

 

Value betting Hillary Clinton

After Paddy Power settled bets on Hillary Clinton early it looks like that result has unofficially been put to bed.

Vince Stanzione has been spot on with betting on Hillary Clinton, although I did not take it. Vince got a mention on CNN Money he had big money on it.

The main reason that I did not take this bet on was that I struggled to see the value in it.

Vince said at odds of 1.5 that it was a good value bet. I thought, yes good value if you win. In hindsight it was good value.

What is Value Betting

Well that depends how you look at it.

Vince found value in betting on Hillary Clinton because he was certain that she was going to win. A 50% return for something that is what you might call “nailed on” can be considered value.

But there are many variables that affect this definition of value.

Vince Stanzione is a professional trader. He has been trading for 30 years. He has a set of rules that repeat over and over. He has lost only 1 election or political bet in something like 15 years.

  • Lets say that there are 2 political bets a year that Vince recommends to his subscribers.
  • Lets say that the average odds are are even lower than the Hillary Clinton bet.
  • Let’s say 1.4, so for every £1000 you put on Vince’s political bets you win £400

Your results will look something like this.

2 bets a year for 15 years = 30 bets

1 losing bet in 15 years = 29 winning bets

29 winning bets x £400 = £11600

Less one losing bet £1000 = £10,600

Over £10k profit is a great return on £1000

So it seems that you can indeed find value at betting on low odds if your strike rate is high.

I repeat my previous quote “odds of 1.5 on Hillary Clinton was good value”. [I’m a bit gutted]

But they were only good odds because they came via a tip [if you like] from someone with a strike rate of 96.6%… I’ll explain.

When Betting is Not Good Value

The odds for any betting event are equal to the perceived chance of that outcome happening.

Using the table beneath you can quickly see what chance your selection has of winning.

FractionalDecimalProbability %
1/1001.0199.00
1/501.0298.03
1/331.0397.08
1/251.0496.15
1/201.0595.23
1/101.1090.90
2/131.1586.95
2/111.1884.74
1/51.2083.33
2/91.2381.30
1/41.2580.00
2/71.2977.80
3/101.3076.70
1/31.3375.00
4/111.3673.33
2/51.4071.43
4/91.4469.23
1/21.5066.67
8/151.5365.50
4/71.5763.64
8/131.6561.90
2/31.6760.00
8/111.7357.89
4/51.8055.56
5/61.8354.55
9/101.9052.63
10/111.9152.38
1/12.0050.00
21/202.0548.78
11/102.1047.62
10/92.1147.37
6/52.2045.45
5/42.2544.44
13/102.3043.48
27/202.3542.55
11/82.3742.11
7/52.4041.67
3/22.5040.00
8/52.6038.46
13/82.6238.10
17/102.7037.04
7/42.7536.36
9/52.8035.71
15/82.8734.78
19/102.9034.48
2/13.0033.33
21/103.1032.26
11/53.2031.25
9/43.2530.77
23/103.3030.30
12/53.4029.41
5/23.5028.57
13/53.6027.78
27/103.7027.03
11/43.7526.67
14/53.8026.32
3/14.0025.00
10/34.3323.08
7/24.5022.22
4/15.0020.00
9/25.5018.18
5/16.0016.67
11/26.5015.38
6/17.0014.29
13/27.5013.33
7/18.0012.50
15/28.5011.76
8/19.0011.11
17/29.5010.53
9/110.0010.00
10/111.009.09
11/112.008.33
12/113.007.69
14/115.006.67
16/117.005.88
18/119.005.26
20/121.004.76
22/123.004.35
25/126.003.85
28/129.003.45
33/134.002.94
40/141.002.44
50/151.001.96
66/167.001.49
80/181.001.23
100/1101.000.99

The problem is that the chart is only mathematically correct.

It is correct if you have no other information that can affect the percentage chance of winning. And if you do win at any of the given odds and do not know how you won then your future results can be limited.

Any selection or bet that you make will have outside variables that affect the value of that bet.

Value Betting Hillary Clinton

Let’s take a look at Vince’s Hillary Clinton bet.

Using the above table, we can see that the actual percentage chance of winning this bet was 66.67%

But because of a higher knowledge of markets, stats, selecting winning bets and all other relative information that Vince used to make his decision. The actual odds that Vince predicted this bet was going to win with was probably nearer to 90%.

Vince never saw Trump as a threat… obviously he didn’t know that Trump was going to capitulate like he did but he was already on the right tracks.

Basically Vince deduced that there was a much higher chance of this bet winning than the 66.67% chance given by the odds.

Hence this is a value bet.

Finding Value in Your betting.

Knowing your market when it comes to successful fixed odds betting is really the key to long term success.

You need to be able to consider a set of variables that you can make an informed decision on.

Spread betting the markets works differently because you are trading a trend by following the previous prices.

If you only looked at making 20% profit each month from short priced fixed odds, then after a year your bank could look like this.

Value Betting

Conclusion

There can be value in short priced fixed odds betting. It really boils down to your knowledge of the markets, and sometimes your research to predict the result more accurately that will increase your strike rate.

That said, you can still lose easily enough. Although thinking longer term and using a sensible betting bank will help keep thing profitable.

 

 

 

 

One mans loss – Samsung Stock

Samsung

One mans loss is another man’s game… very true. That also is true when it comes to trading.

You will often find that occurrence in various market sectors [often commodities] Gold could be down and corn could be up as a hypothetical example.

Samsung Saga

I have been following the samsung saga and expecting a really big slump but that hasn’t happen as yet… even though the price is down.

Sometimes though, trading a stock that has so much negative press doesn’t result in a free fall move that you are expecting.

That doesn’t mean that the benefits cant be seen elsewhere in the market.

I emailed Vince this week and asked if he was going to sell samsung ? He explained to me that in these situations it can be wise to trade the competitors stock.

That made perfect sense to me.

Stocks don’t always do what you think they are going to do, that’s for sure. All the charts, indicators and even seasons can be in place and the move you think is going to happen doesn’t. 

Trade the competition

apple

But in these scenarios where a company is facing some sort of catastrophe… as Samsung is with their mobile phone recall, you can look at trading one of their rivals as money can flow into the rival stock as it will be seen as a more stable option.

In this case we can look to trade Apple over Samsung.

I do like the look of Apple anyway, and this could be a somewhat super safe trade [if such a thing exists] so I’ll be looking to trade and profit on this.

You can actually trade some shares on binary now, even though only on the short term, it is a way to get some exposure to the markets and practice. You’ll know your total profit and loss in advance also. 

Vince Stanzione at The Business Show

Vince Stanzione at the business show

The business show is here again at the Olympia London. If you haven’t been before then it’s worth a visit.

For all that is there, I always find only a small percentage [in my opinion] will actually be worth going for. But… it is that percentage that you can take a tremendous amount from. So don’t be put of at the size of the event.

In fact you could probably apply the 80/20 rule to the show. 80% of the show not so relevant to you, 20% of the show right up your street.

Vince Stanzione at The Business Show

As you know, I have been there on a few occasions. And I am not being bias when I say that Vince Stanzione has one of the biggest audiences there.

There are people sat on the floor in there for his hour slot and at least 6 deep standing outside of the presentation area. why? Because this quiet multi-millionaire trader that you’d probably never notice if you walked past him on the street springs to life with passion and delivers an enthusiastic set on how to start making money from home.

Also, if you are thinking of learning to trade or indeed have already started then you’ll also get a chance to speak to him face to face.

In my opinion they need a few more genuine entrepreneurs like Vince there.

In saying that [my little grumble above], you can get a good idea of what is actually going on currently in the business world by walking around the stands and the show can help you create ideas for your own niche business.

Avoid the Hype

2 minute traderDon’t buy into the hype presented there though. The old hat marketing funnel guys like booking line have stands there.

They’ll be Giving away self published books that teach you how to make money doing something that they’re not doing… Giving presentations and pretending to cry all in a bid to convince you that they are genuine because they give to charity. You get my drift!

As it happens, talking about old hat marketing guys, Tim Lowe has bought out a new product called 2 minute trader. Same old, same old promising riches from horse racing trading from bets that cant lose.

Wasn’t this done like 10 years ago? YES… but marketers reinvent the wheel all the time. Last year Tim Lowe was selling football systems, the other month a programme to convert websites to mobile friendly versions, now it’s horse racing.

This is the difference from decent business men like Vince Stanzione and wobbly sales men like Tim Lowe.

Vince has been selling his system for decades. He hasn’t gone from spread betting to poker systems, racing, roulette and so on. He doesn’t offer the next new fad.

That is building proof that something works long term. He is a master of his trade [no pun intended]

2 Minute Trader

Anyway, back to 2 minute trader… the system might work for all I know, in fact I think that I’ll buy it and test it. If it works I’ll let you know, but even if it does I’d be surprised if it is anything new.

At least by doing this I’m not just slating a product because I’m not keen on the marketers behind it.

I’m going to give 2 minute trader a chance. If it is genuine and Tim Lowe can help you make profits from horse racing then you can buy it after the review.

Get Tickets to the Show

So if you fancy a day out, Vince is on at 4pm on Friday 18th November Tickets are free and you can get them here.

A Trade from Vince

I mentioned in my last post that I was going to ask Vince if I could offer my subscribers a trade from his mentorship site. Well… he said yes, so I will send that out to you Monday.